Realistic hope…or magical thinking?

I keep thinking, “it can’t get any worse.” Then it gets worse. And then it gets even worse. And then it gets even…

If one focuses on the Hamas rockets exploding in Sderot, the return to targeted assasinations by the Israelis, the Fatah-Hamas warfare,..then harboring any hope or even considering the possibility of progress can seem like childish, magical thinking.

But don’t forget that the rest of the world has a newfound, belated interest in ending this shared nightmare. For rays of hope, below is an op-ed by Rafi Dajani and Daniel Levy, an Arab American and an Israeli Jew. You can find it and other rays of hope on the Ameinu web site.

When even Pakistan, Malasia and Indonesia have “signed up to the logic” of the Arab peace initiative, it means that the vast majority of Muslim states are offering a comprehensive peace to Israel, under certain conditions, at long last. Olmert may be too weak or addled to take advantage of it. But the offer is still on the table. Focusing on that is not magical thinking, is it?

What Israel Wants is Within its Reach

By Raafat Dajani and Daniel Levy
Israel just marked its 59th birthday recently and like a typical baby boomer, tends to vent its frustration at dreams not realized. Yet a core Israeli dream – to not only establish a state, but to have that state accepted in the Middle East and live at peace with its neighbors – is within reach. If only Israel, having finally gotten to “yes” with the Arab world, would recognize it. Amid all the Middle East doom and gloom, there are at least three reasons for real hope – Israeli, Palestinian and regional.

On the Israeli side there is a belated realization that the absence of an agreed border, the ongoing occupation, and unfettered settlement activity have all been extremely costly in security, financial, and moral terms. Israelis are increasingly cognizant that application of the country’s military force delivers, at best, partial solutions and are keen to find a negotiated way forward. They are distrustful of the Palestinians’ intentions and capacity to deliver, but view the Arab world as a more reliable and robust partner.

On the Palestinian side, and contrary to conventional wisdom in the US, the Mecca unity government deal between Fatah and Hamas in many ways represents a broadening Palestinian consensus around the inevitability of a two-state solution and acceptance of Israel as an irreversible reality. According to the unity government platform, President Mahmoud Abbas is authorized to negotiate with Israel, with any agreement reached having to be approved by a referendum or Palestine Liberation Organization vote, the legitimacy of which all parties would accept. External Arab states’ involvement helped to lock in this deal and would presumably be again required to back up a Palestinian sign-off on a permanent-status peace deal with Israel.

That is why the third element – the regional role – is so important and why renewed peace efforts could take the Saudi-Arab initiative as a key point of departure.

While the clauses of the re-launched Arab peace initiative are essentially the same as those of the original 2002 initiative, the context in which the current initiative is launched is very different.

The person who launched the 2002 initiative, then-Crown Prince Abdullah, is now king of a Saudi Arabia that has assumed the leadership mantle of the Arabs, brokering the new Palestinian coalition government, mediating between the factions in Lebanon and formulating regional strategy over Iran.

In addition, the Arab world is witnessing a rarely seen unity over the initiative, signaling a fundamental shift toward accepting Israel as a neighbor and partner.

Israel has oscillated between enthusiasm and concern in its response to the initiative. Israeli criticisms of a “take it or leave it” proposal or of the refugee or border clauses largely miss the point.

The Saudi and Egyptian foreign ministers have stressed that Israel should accept the initiative “in principle” and as “a framework,” after which all issues would be open for negotiations. The borders clause says that they should “be based” on the 1967 lines, implying that the exact border lines would be negotiated. On the refugees, the key terminology in the clause is the phrase “agreed upon.” By definition, “agreed upon” means Israel signing off on a solution to the refugee issue that it too accepts.

An additional bonus is that influential non-Arab Muslim states have also signed up to the logic behind the initiative – peace for normalization. Pakistan, Indonesia, and Malaysia fall into this category. It is no longer an act of wide-eyed naivete to envisage an Israel at peace with its neighbors and accepted by the Arab and Muslim worlds. Israel did it, it got to “yes” – now it is time to recognize it and act on it.

Raafat Dajani is the executive director of the American Task Force on Palestine, an organization advocating the US interest in the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Daniel Levy is a senior fellow and director of the Prospects for Peace Initiative at the Century Foundation and a senior fellow and director of the Middle East Initiative at the New America Foundation.